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[ST] More on Luggage Shortage



Nathan,

Although I feel your pain, for it took a month or so to get my luggage, and
I couldn't live without them now that I have them, I have a few of thoughts
in defense of Triumph.

First, the key to Forecasting is Statistical Analysis.  And the 3 keys to
good Statistical Analysis are: Sample Size, Sample Size, and Sample Size.
With only 1999 and 2000 to use as data points, you only have 2 points to
build a sales projection curve.  As you know, 2 points only make a line.
And though a line is a curve with a VERY slight bend, the 2 data points are
not nearly enough to help forecast their sales.  What can they do to help?
Look at quarterly sales?  Look at similar bike options?  The Trophy comes
with the 2 bags.  The Tiger is newly redesigned also, and is a slightly
different class of bike for comaparison sake.  That said, it becomes a 'best
guess' scenario for determining luggage sales.  Also, maybe they had a
serious rush on bags which wiped out their inventory.  There seems to have
been a recent increase in ST wrecks.  It alco could be that many owners
returned recently to add bags to their bikes, having heard all the cool
things about them on this list.  Who knows.

Second, take a look at the Honda VFR, considered a Sport-Tourer.  It has
never had a hard luggage solution from Honda, and its sales are excellent.
More than some folks believe that if it did have a hard luggage option that
it would be a perfect bike.  I've read several ST/VFR comparisons that place
the ST in front of the VFR only because the ST has luggage.  It is the bike
that Triumph used as a goal to help design the ST, and though they designed
the ST around carrying the luggage, they still saw that Honda had an
excellent sales record with the VFR without luggage.  So they did what they
could, and made a guess.  They unfortunately guessed wrong.  For them, it is
better to error on the low side, financially speaking, and seek forgiveness
later.

Finally, most likely, the bags for all 3 bagged bikes are made on the same
machines.  Since it would require some re-tooling to switch between
production of bags for the Trohpy, ST and Tiger, Triumph will make all their
projected sales amounts (in a given period) for the ST at once.  Then they
would re-tool for the Tiger, and then again for the Trophy.  Who knows where
they were in their manufacturing when they ran out of Bags (or at least the
back parts) for the ST.  They'll finish what ever run they are on, then
stitch to the ST setup.

Anyways,  Glad to see that you still got an ST though be it used.  You
should have saved a fair amount too, because trade-in on a used ST is lucky
to be $6500.  The poor guy who traded it in took the loss in value for you.

- --Joel


- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-st@xxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-st@xxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of
Nathan Jacobson
Sent: Thursday, June 14, 2001 11:11 AM
To: ST@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [ST] RE: st-digest V2001 #346


RE: ] luggage'less in Dallas

I too was to take possession of a 2001 BRG ST. The dealer wanted me to take
it stating that the panniers (hard luggage) would arrive "in a few days".
I refused to take possession without the bags.
It turned out that the bags are on back order in England, with no known date
for stocking. It would then be a matter of Triumph shipping to Georgia, and
from there shipping to us here in Canada. Ridiculous!! I would get the bags
in the fall.
I was unwilling to take the bike without the bags (the "T" stands for
touring!!).
The dealer ended up selling me a 2000 with the bags and 6,000 kilometers on
it.
I believe that Triumph has really screwed up on this one. Their forecasting
of the demand sucks. They should assume that in their lineup, that most
buyers of a "sport touring" bike will want the bags. Also they should have
let the dealers know what the situation really is, so that the dealers will
not look like asses to the customers.

My two cents!!

Nathan Jacobson

2000 Triumph ST
2000 H-D Deuce (overseas)
1998 H-D Road King
1943 Indian 741 Scout
1943 Harley WLC
1974 Jag E-Type roadster
2000 Jag Supercharged VDP
and other less interesting forms of transport